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A quarter-point hike would be a moderation in the bank’s series of rapid increases while a half-point would underline concern that inflation is still not heading back toward the bank’s goal of 2% considered best for the economy.
Expectations have largely been shifting between the Fed delivering another quarter-point interest-rate hike or taking a pause in its yearlong effort to raise rates and reduce inflation.
Fed rate hikes are expected to be scaled back to a quarter-point next month.
Source: https://www.chiangraitimes.com/business/cpi-shows-gas-prices-in-december/
Last week, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady at between 5% and 5.25%, but most policymakers see at least two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of this year.
Markets see a 40 percent chance that the BoE will raise interest rates by half a percentage point to 5 percent, rather than the quarter-point move previously expected, in an effort to control inflation.
Source: https://azeritimes.com/2023/07/02/causes-consequences-of-uks-stubbornly-high-inflation/
That is not even factoring in this question: what if another quarter-point rate increase does happen at either the September or November FOMC meeting?
Source: https://www.etftrends.com/model-portfolio-channel/five-alive/
That’s how many times the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in the last 12 months, including the latest quarter-point increase on Wednesday.
The decision comes a day after the Fed approved a quarter-point increase and hinted that it may be the last for now.
The European Central Bank announced a quarter-point interest rate hike as inflation remains too high.
The Fed has already signaled that it expects to carry out two more quarter-point hikes, to a range of 5 percent to 5.25 percent, which would be the highest level in 15 years.
The probability of a quarter-point hike has fallen from 10% on Tuesday to 2% today, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker.
Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/fundamental/australian-dollar-falls-as-inflation-cools/kfisher
The swaps market is pricing in a quarter-point cut in Q4.
While traders remain divided about the size of February’s hike, with 32 basis points of tightening priced in, it appears that a quarter-point move is seen as more likely than a half-point increase.