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All 11 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in favor of lifting the Fed’s benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to between 5.0-5.25 percent, although there was disagreement about what to do next.
Source: https://business.inquirer.net/402587/fed-economists-still-expect-mild-recession-may-minutes-show
Apart from the US inflation, the Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting also challenged the Fed hawks by stating that the expectations for rate hikes were scaled back due to the turmoil in the banking sector.
As Fed Chairman Powell noted in his March FOMC press conference, "events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses" going forward.
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4598260-oxlc-q1-preview-and-outlook?source=feed_all_articles
Austan Goolsbee, Powell's colleague on the rate-setting FOMC, indicated Friday that he also thought the Fed was on target to meet its dual mandate of controlling both inflation and unemployment.
Bitcoin started the day trading at $28,216, before rising to $28,417 ahead of FOMC.
DataTrek Research co-founder said Monday that any surprises on Wednesday will likely come from Powell's press conference rather than from FOMC policy decisions themselves.
Fed's Powell: The FOMC is prepared to raise rates further if appropriatefinancialjuice.
FOMC preview: A dovish hike, but how dovish?
Goolsbee said the consensus of almost all FOMC participants is for one or two more hikes this year, which he said could come at any of the upcoming meetings in the second half of the year.
Source: https://fortune.com/2023/07/09/janet-yellen-wont-rule-out-recession-inflation-too-high/
His comment further supported the view that the FOMC will remain very data driven and, besides the small risk of a systemic event taking control, it will keep hiking rates despite the obvious risk to the economic outlook.
Source: https://mid-east.info/commodities-see-bumpy-start-to-march/
However, the minutes of the Fed’s July FOMC meeting hint at more interest rate hikes in the near term. A majority of central bank officials are in favor of further interest rate hikes as inflation remains elevated and well above the Fed’s 2% target.
How we feeling about TLT and TMF headed into CPI and FOMC?
Investors remain watchful ahead of the release of US FOMC minutes on Wednesday, as the minutes may give some indication of a pause on rate hikes,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
It will be a busy week filled with economic releases, with most of the attention falling on the first look at the May PMI readings, a second look at Q1 GDP/Core PCE, New Home Sales, and the FOMC meeting minutes.
JOLTs job openings, FOMC minutes, Tesla shares: 3 things to watch Byinvesting.
Overall, the big hawkish flip seen in May due to hot economic data, started to reverse recently as Fed members expressed preference for a skip at this FOMC meeting and the economic data started to disappoint.
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurusd-technical-analysis-20230613/
Powell highlights that 12 FOMC members advocated for one more rate hike in the next two meetings.
That is not even factoring in this question: what if another quarter-point rate increase does happen at either the September or November FOMC meeting?
Source: https://www.etftrends.com/model-portfolio-channel/five-alive/
The Dow 30 made it 12, then 13 daily gains in a row as the entire equity market continued to remain resilient in the face of earnings and the FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates again at the next FOMC meeting on Feb. 1, but the is pricing in high odds that the increase will be trimmed to a relatively mild 25 basis points.