I suspect policymakers and investors will be caught off guard by how quickly the disinflationary impulse asserts itself.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4606231-5-reasons-why-the-october-lows-should-hold?source=feed_all_articles

"There are clear signs of disinflationary forces taking hold in the manufacturing sector, with input costs falling for the second month running and at the quickest rate since May 2020.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-march-final-manufacturing-pmi-447-vs-444-prelim-20230403/

There were only 10 spikes above 0.3% during the period, but the subsequent months were usually disinflationary, close to 0.1% and in some cases closer to 0%.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657073-november-cpi-report-preview-4-percent-core-inflation-stagflation-already?source=feed_all_articles

"We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started"

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-qa-it-is-important-that-financial-conditions-reflect-policy-restraint-in-place-20230201/