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I am now estimating Sitio's value at around $27 per share in a long-term $70 WTI oil and $4.00 NYMEX gas environment.
I estimate Black Stone's value at $18.00 to $18.50 per unit at long-term $70 WTI oil and $4 NYMEX gas now, and believe that it should be able to maintain its current $0.45 per unit quarterly distribution at those commodity prices.
My projections have it getting close to that amount at $3.18 NYMEX gas since oil is around $8 higher than the flat $70 oil that Gulfport used in its estimates.
NYMEX strip prices in future months are similar for oil but rising seasonally (summer demand, storage fill, winter) for natural gas.
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590048-vital-energys-vitality?source=feed_all_articles
That’s pretty much in line with my $71.50/bbl estimate for NYMEX in the final 9 months of 2023, so that leaves little need to adjust the realized price of oil for any benefit or headwind from the hedges.
The leverage ratio (Net Debt to Cash Flow) can remain below 0.5x at $65 WTI and $3 NYMEX pricing environment.
The strong cost performance and improved hedging position boosts Gulfport's estimated value to $115 per share in a long-term $4.00 NYMEX gas scenario and $95 per share in a long-term $3.50 NYMEX gas scenario.
The strong cost performance and improved hedging position boosts Gulfport's estimated value to $115 per share in a long-term $4.00 NYMEX gas scenario and $95 per share in a long-term $3.50 NYMEX gas scenario.