Equally, we think the market underprices the risk of the Bank of Japan shortening its Yield Curve Control policy to the five-year part of the JGB curve when it meets in June.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593695-usd-jpy-bracing-second-half-us-recession?source=feed_all_articles

Even after the BoJ’s failure to lift the YCC cap on 10Y JGB yields once more after its December move, it seems the widely held view in the market is that that cap will have to be lifted, or removed altogether, at some point this year.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570550-bank-of-japan-defies-market-speculation-keeps-policy-steady?source=feed_all_articles

“If the BOJ completely discards yield curve control, many people estimate JGB yields should stay around 0.9% to 1%,” he said.

Source: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/japanese-yields-top-policy-cap-for-2nd-day-defying-massive-boj-buying-3

Just a month ago the BOJ shocked markets by doubling the allowable band for the 10-year JGB yield to 50 basis points either side of 0 percent.

Source: https://business.inquirer.net/382838/japanese-yen-tumbles-bonds-rally-after-boj-keeps-policy-ultra-easy

Russia will likely hike rates again, and, as we noted, Japan has lifted the upper band for the 10-year JGB but has not hiked overnight rates and its balance sheet continues to expand.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644800-november-2023-monthly?source=feed_all_articles

The BOJ said it would offer to buy 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) at 1 percent in fixed-rate operations, instead of the previous rate of 0.5 percent, signaling that it would now tolerate a rise in the 10-year yield to as much as 1 percent.

Source: https://business.inquirer.net/412841/boj-loosens-tight-grip-on-rates-as-prices-rise-markets-bet-on-bigger-pivot

"The record amount of JGB buying underscores investors' bet on the policy change," said Kazuhiko Sano, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities.

Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Foreigners-make-record-weekly-JGB-purchase-after-BOJ-maintains-policy--43326006/?utm_medium=RSS&utm_content=20230323