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According to the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, wage growth was over 5% for September 2023.
All 11 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were in favor of lifting the Fed’s benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to between 5.0-5.25 percent, although there was disagreement about what to do next.
Source: https://business.inquirer.net/402587/fed-economists-still-expect-mild-recession-may-minutes-show
All US lenders park a chunk of their money in Treasuries and other bonds, and the Fed’s hikes made those existing bonds less valuable because of their low yields.
And it’s not just the private sector – the federal government has debt levels not seen since World War II, which may undermine the Fed’s inflation fight and require it to push rates even higher.
And neither was included on the Fed’s most recent list of US banks deemed large enough to undergo required stress testing.
Source: https://qz.com/with-svb-and-signature-the-us-is-making-a-systemic-ri-1850217617
And we do mean “considerable” when it comes to the shutdown of the Fed’s printing press.
April’s nonfarm payrolls report is due later on Friday, the next major data point that will offer further clues on the Fed’s fight against inflation.
Arguably the greatest impact of the Fed’s rate hike effort was its effect on regional banks; three of the four largest bank failures in American history have come over the last two months in First Republic, Silicon Valley and Signature Banks.
As measured by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, things have tightened up from where they were prior to the Fed’s first rate hike last year, but after peaking in early October, a distinct loosening has since transpired.
Source: https://www.etftrends.com/model-portfolio-channel/an-un-conditional-guarantee/
As measured by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index, things have tightened up from where they were prior to the Fed’s first rate hike last year, but after peaking in early October, a distinct loosening has since transpired.
Source: https://www.etftrends.com/model-portfolio-channel/an-un-conditional-guarantee/
As noted above, markets were easing financial conditions in January, much to the Fed’s dismay.
As recently as a few days ago, the release of CPI data was considered the key crystal ball for predicting the Fed’s next move, according to Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Source: https://www.chiangraitimes.com/business/cpi-report-confirms-that-inflation/
But because Logan ran the New York Fed’s bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what’s driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves.
Source: https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/2023/10/09/higher-bond-yields-may/
But if his inflation battle proves ineffective, he will further damage the Fed’s credibility, which is already tarnished with costly mistakes last year.
But inflation is also cooling faster than policymakers expected, which means the Fed’s policymakers likely see no reason to further raise rates.
Source: https://centraloregondaily.com/inflation-november-2023-report/
Despite this, the Fed’s policy makers have divergent views, and therefore forecast a range of outcomes for interest rates in their projections.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/02/21/how-high-could-us-interest-rates-rise-in-2023/
Fed’s Barkin (hawk, non-voter) said that the pandemic may have boosted the labour market resilience and that inflation remains too high and stubbornly persistent.
Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-recap-12-16-june-2023-20230616/
Financial tightening — whether brought about by interest rate increases, bank failures, the reduction of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet or a combination of them — works slowly on the broader economy.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/business/economy-markets-recession-federal-reserve.html
Going forward, Barjoyai expects the equity market to recover following the Fed’s move to possibly slow down its interest rates hike, with the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI rebounding to the 1,600 to 1,700-point level.
Source: https://www.theborneopost.com/2023/02/13/tabung-haji-expected-to-pay-modest-dividend-for-2022/
He added that BTC needs two things to rebound, the return of bullishness on Wall Street and the Fed’s exit from its rate-tightening policy.
Source: https://punchng.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-29000-in-2023-report/