After the release of Tuesday's data, traders in contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate boosted bets that the central bank will hold rates steady from here on.

Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Key-US-jobs-data-boost-Fed-s-soft-landing-hopes--44724170/?utm_medium=RSS&utm_content=20230829

A meeting between US President Biden and China President Xi is the highlight; there is also US CPI and retail sales, the former being a key input into the Fed's policy deliberations; China activity data will also be released.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/week-ahead-highlights-include-biden-xi-meeting-us-cpi-china-activity-data-20231112/

Analysts at JPMorgan, on the other hand, stand with the majority and flag a rise of 25 basis points in part because postponing a move until May would threaten the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility.

Source: https://gazette.com/news/us-world/asia-hopes-for-best-on-banks-much-rests-with-fed/article_8f00b860-b9a4-5512-941e-a3ac8977d01d.html

And I think the market deserves a breather after all it's had with earnings, on top of the Fed's decision, on top of treasury funding, on top of payroll's report.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4647427-wall-street-breakfast-catalyst-watch-is-consumer-sentiment-just-another-data-point-in-the-mix?source=feed_all_articles

As the labor market starts to finally crack (the most lagged economic signal), and consumer credit growth slows (at their limits), The Fed has a problem as, according to the New York Fed's March Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation expectations are…

Source: https://biztoc.com/x/48738d2424fc9a4a?ref=ff

As unemployment rises and the job market continues to slow due to the Fed's prior interest rate increases, we are currently at 0.30 on this Sahm Rule metric (Figure 8).

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658327-rvt-cef-smallcaps-may-outperform-in-soft-landing-scenario?source=feed_all_articles

At the same time, “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has remained elevated at 4.7% despite the Fed's streak of 11 rate hikes beginning in March 2022.

Source: https://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/business_news/national_business/article_429ff4e1-e504-5186-ae52-0bc6fe99128a.html

"But from the Fed's point of view, there are additional dangers that need to be reviewed, which will take some time.

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/most-asian-markets-sink-after-us-lenders-collapse-silicon-valley-bank-signature-3342486?cid=cna_flip_070214

But March's 5% year-over-year inflation rate remained well above the Fed's 2% target.

Source: https://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/business_news/national_business/article_7fc98fe6-0bc0-5384-bc4d-3d930ba90184.html

But some analysts see a disconnect between the Fed's likely path and markets expectations.

Source: https://www.perthnow.com.au/business/asian-shares-subdued-us-fed-rate-hike-odds-raised-c-10302886

CFG among many other banks is using the Fed's program to support their paper loss in very low yield treasuries.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4631312-earn-double-digit-returns-with-cfg-preferred-stock?source=feed_all_articles

Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's governing board, did not specify how many more increases he supports, but said in written remarks that inflation “is still much too high and so my job is not done.”

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-fed-washington-san-antonio-texas-b2319869.html

City Index senior market analyst Matt Simpson pointed to inflation softening in the US but concedes core inflation is expected to remain high at 5.6 per cent, which is double the Fed's preferred rate.

Source: https://www.perthnow.com.au/business/markets/australian-market-rises-on-the-back-of-muted-us-session-c-10321684

Core inflation rate in the United States has fallen from 6.6% to as low as 4.7%, due to the Fed's aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635655-crocs-stock-we-becoming-more-bullish-rating-upgrade?source=feed_all_articles

Despite that dour forecast, the Fed's policymakers agreed last week to forgo a rate hike for the first time in 11 meetings dating back to March 2022.

Source: https://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/business_news/national_business/article_4ce1ec5b-28c3-52ae-af81-e67fbbe4e2a0.html

"Earlier in the week, (Fed Governor Christopher) Waller, one of the Fed's biggest hawks, said as inflation decreases, we're going to drop rates," Ladner said.

Source: https://www.perthnow.com.au/business/markets/us-stocks-rally-sp-500-hits-2023-closing-high-c-12776284

Economic weakness in China and Europe, while somewhat distressing, might actually increase the sustainability of the Fed's dramatic progress on inflation.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4630016-powell-likely-to-give-markets-some-relief-at-jackson-hole?source=feed_all_articles

Federal Reserve economists predict that turmoil after the collapse of several banks will cause a "mild recession" later this year, according to minutes of the Fed's March meeting.

Source: https://www.shockya.com/news/2023/04/15/experts-warn-of-economic-recession-in-the-near-future/

Fed's Barkin: Never want to declare victory over potential bank strainfinancialjuice.

Source: https://biztoc.com/x/31b44a1949218abd?ref=ff

Fed's Daly: Core services inflation hasn't come down yet as the Fed would like.

Source: https://biztoc.com/x/7582493568480e40?ref=ff